Another great article. It sounds very reasonable to me. I asked Gemini to produce a graph of immigration over the last 20 years. Unfortunately, it wouldn't allow me to simply paste it here.
It reported "There has been a historic increase in net immigration starting in 2021. According to CBO estimates, net immigration reached record highs of approximately 3.3 million people annually in both 2023 and 2024." From the graph, it is evident that immigration isn't crashing, it's just normalizing. It would be helpful for some topics like the focus here on immigration to show a graph of immigration over the last 20 years in the article. Just a suggestion.
Appreciate the suggestion! And yeah, it's hard to copy/paste here. It's definitely not unprecedented, especially during recessions/down periods in the US economy. That being said, pre-pandemic, it was around 1 million/year as a rough baseline. The current 2025 estimate is less than half a million, below the pre-pandemic norm. Will it last? We'll see, but it's definitely an anomalous number relative to the strength of the economy (i.e, not in recession).
Immigration Fell Off a Cliff - title is correct. It's because instead of filing for H1 they are hiring in other off shore places...that way it looks like collaboration between 2 nations minus the H1 numbers drama. See if you can find graphs showing trends of off shore hiring done by US companies.
Thanks! Interestingly, a lot of net migration (the majority) was actually NOT H1Bs or whatever. It was illegal/undocumented/pick-your-favorite-word immigration. As a whole, the pace of offshoring didn't really pick up hugely especially in the past few years. As a quick google, this looks like what I remember the stats roughly looking like: https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/business/american-companies-are-offshoring-high-paying-remote-friendly-jobs/
The undocumented are primarily blue collar jobs. H1Bs (immigration) are typically white collar jobs. Two categories should be analyzed separately. Because when meta, amzn or others layoff, those are never blue collar jobs.
The article states " #1 US-based employers expanded employment abroad faster than domestically for the past 7 years. This is particularly pronounced among Tech and Consulting firms. #2 Highly remote-suitable roles have grown 42% faster outside the US than within the US since 2019, while there is no difference in growth rates for roles that are not remote-suitable. #3 Cost saving considerations play another large role for offshoring. For every 10% reduction in foreign worker salaries compared to average US salaries for the same role, employment outside the US grew 13.1 percentage points faster than within the US." Amzn, meta etc are all remote-able jobs.
Another great article. It sounds very reasonable to me. I asked Gemini to produce a graph of immigration over the last 20 years. Unfortunately, it wouldn't allow me to simply paste it here.
It reported "There has been a historic increase in net immigration starting in 2021. According to CBO estimates, net immigration reached record highs of approximately 3.3 million people annually in both 2023 and 2024." From the graph, it is evident that immigration isn't crashing, it's just normalizing. It would be helpful for some topics like the focus here on immigration to show a graph of immigration over the last 20 years in the article. Just a suggestion.
Appreciate the suggestion! And yeah, it's hard to copy/paste here. It's definitely not unprecedented, especially during recessions/down periods in the US economy. That being said, pre-pandemic, it was around 1 million/year as a rough baseline. The current 2025 estimate is less than half a million, below the pre-pandemic norm. Will it last? We'll see, but it's definitely an anomalous number relative to the strength of the economy (i.e, not in recession).
Immigration Fell Off a Cliff - title is correct. It's because instead of filing for H1 they are hiring in other off shore places...that way it looks like collaboration between 2 nations minus the H1 numbers drama. See if you can find graphs showing trends of off shore hiring done by US companies.
Thanks! Interestingly, a lot of net migration (the majority) was actually NOT H1Bs or whatever. It was illegal/undocumented/pick-your-favorite-word immigration. As a whole, the pace of offshoring didn't really pick up hugely especially in the past few years. As a quick google, this looks like what I remember the stats roughly looking like: https://www.reveliolabs.com/news/business/american-companies-are-offshoring-high-paying-remote-friendly-jobs/
The undocumented are primarily blue collar jobs. H1Bs (immigration) are typically white collar jobs. Two categories should be analyzed separately. Because when meta, amzn or others layoff, those are never blue collar jobs.
The article states " #1 US-based employers expanded employment abroad faster than domestically for the past 7 years. This is particularly pronounced among Tech and Consulting firms. #2 Highly remote-suitable roles have grown 42% faster outside the US than within the US since 2019, while there is no difference in growth rates for roles that are not remote-suitable. #3 Cost saving considerations play another large role for offshoring. For every 10% reduction in foreign worker salaries compared to average US salaries for the same role, employment outside the US grew 13.1 percentage points faster than within the US." Amzn, meta etc are all remote-able jobs.