It seems to me, given this analysis, that NVDIA is actually the best place to park your money--its tech is real, and they will still be the main customer of whatever Amazon equivalent emerges on the other side of the Bubble.
I was playing NVIDIA options earlier in the year, but after last earnings it finally clicked that this is a thing here to stay.
There will be a bust, and NVIDIA will eventually not be the only contender. But my opinion is if I'm confident AI is a game changer that's here to stay, then I'm willing to see out the bubble pop confident things will recover, and grow beyond that one day. I bought in hot around 128, that might be at the top, next earnings round will help tell.
Not new news, but there are major ethics and philosophical topics that can be re-approached now with AI. I really see a lot of sub-industries forming around maintaining and measuring alignment (UL Certified AI Alignment maybe?).
If/when training data becomes exhausted, that means it's a constrained shared resource. That creates opportunity for businesses to emerge as scavengers and guardians of data sources to then sell to AI trainers (data consumers). This would raise costs of AI and likely be the end of the "Golden Era" of AI where it was free, novel and accessible. (Rhyming with the rise of Content Streamers like Netflix)
That sets a very nice stage for Iain Banks "Culture Series" where AI machines, ships and devices are everywhere. They operate a galactic government on the behalf of humanity, since AI and machinery is far superior to humans. Each ship has a fully conscious AI brain, sometimes two! They're fully considered as individuals and choose their own names, some Elon Musk used on his own ships. Anyway, these machines serve humans just out of perceived value in them existing (quite the alignment).
The fascinating part about that is that humans are essentially NFT's to the machines in that book's universe. Large spacecraft carrying billions of people regularly trade famous people with other craft just to earn the 'status' of having the person aboard. Humans are essentially currency to them
So I'm wondering do the machines protect them because of alignment?
Or because they value the training data? 🤣
Boy it makes sense in a weird way right? AI Machines protecting a species for their training data. Can't even imagine how that would *actually* look in a reality.
There's a lot more to think about and how our world will change. I walk down my road and imagine how it looked before telephone poles and paved roads came around. That's a reality-shift I would have cried over to see happen in my lifetime. It's not just the visual, but all the other small details that come with it. Road noise, asphalt smells, more tourists, etc. Truly, step out and imagine being happy living just 150 years ago and come back to a city today. What would you feel?
I think we're in a moment to consider what we appreciate before AI so we can more fluidly appreciate what comes with it.
So far, humanity keeps using things for more good than bad. And when we're bad, we're pretty good at recovering from it. It's easy to get scared. It's normal to feel scared. It's motivates us to appreciate the details of life before a major reality shift like this happens so we can appreciate them as memories.
Anxiety feels like falling.
Happiness feels like falling, but trusting you'll land safely.
A great article about bubbles/cycles!
"Readers who clicked into this wanting to read about exactly when to dump all their NVDA shares" hahaha
It seems to me, given this analysis, that NVDIA is actually the best place to park your money--its tech is real, and they will still be the main customer of whatever Amazon equivalent emerges on the other side of the Bubble.
I was playing NVIDIA options earlier in the year, but after last earnings it finally clicked that this is a thing here to stay.
There will be a bust, and NVIDIA will eventually not be the only contender. But my opinion is if I'm confident AI is a game changer that's here to stay, then I'm willing to see out the bubble pop confident things will recover, and grow beyond that one day. I bought in hot around 128, that might be at the top, next earnings round will help tell.
Not new news, but there are major ethics and philosophical topics that can be re-approached now with AI. I really see a lot of sub-industries forming around maintaining and measuring alignment (UL Certified AI Alignment maybe?).
If/when training data becomes exhausted, that means it's a constrained shared resource. That creates opportunity for businesses to emerge as scavengers and guardians of data sources to then sell to AI trainers (data consumers). This would raise costs of AI and likely be the end of the "Golden Era" of AI where it was free, novel and accessible. (Rhyming with the rise of Content Streamers like Netflix)
That sets a very nice stage for Iain Banks "Culture Series" where AI machines, ships and devices are everywhere. They operate a galactic government on the behalf of humanity, since AI and machinery is far superior to humans. Each ship has a fully conscious AI brain, sometimes two! They're fully considered as individuals and choose their own names, some Elon Musk used on his own ships. Anyway, these machines serve humans just out of perceived value in them existing (quite the alignment).
The fascinating part about that is that humans are essentially NFT's to the machines in that book's universe. Large spacecraft carrying billions of people regularly trade famous people with other craft just to earn the 'status' of having the person aboard. Humans are essentially currency to them
So I'm wondering do the machines protect them because of alignment?
Or because they value the training data? 🤣
Boy it makes sense in a weird way right? AI Machines protecting a species for their training data. Can't even imagine how that would *actually* look in a reality.
There's a lot more to think about and how our world will change. I walk down my road and imagine how it looked before telephone poles and paved roads came around. That's a reality-shift I would have cried over to see happen in my lifetime. It's not just the visual, but all the other small details that come with it. Road noise, asphalt smells, more tourists, etc. Truly, step out and imagine being happy living just 150 years ago and come back to a city today. What would you feel?
I think we're in a moment to consider what we appreciate before AI so we can more fluidly appreciate what comes with it.
So far, humanity keeps using things for more good than bad. And when we're bad, we're pretty good at recovering from it. It's easy to get scared. It's normal to feel scared. It's motivates us to appreciate the details of life before a major reality shift like this happens so we can appreciate them as memories.
Anxiety feels like falling.
Happiness feels like falling, but trusting you'll land safely.